Chapter Outline

Carefully crafted outlines follow the structure of each chapter, providing an essential reference and teaching tool.

See pages: 490-459

Operations Profile: Challenges in Forecasting Demand for L.L. Bean’s Famous “Duck Boots,”

            Introduction to Forecasting and Its Applications

            The Characteristics of Good Forecasts

            Qualitative Versus Quantitative Forecasting Methods

                        Qualitative Methods

                        Quantitative Methods

                        Types of Quantitative Methods: Time Series Forecasting

                        Short-Term Time Series Forecasting Methods

Operations Profile: Using Forecasting to Solve Hospital Staffing Challenges

                        Medium- to Long-Term Time Series Forecasting Methods

                        Techniques for Evaluating Cyclical Variations

                        Types of Quantitative Methods: Causal or Associative Methods

            Measuring and Monitoring the Accuracy of Forecasting Methods

                        Mean Absolutes Deviation (MAD)

                        Cumulative Sum Error (CSE) and Bias

                        Mean Squared Error (MSE)

                        Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)

            Monitoring and Controlling Forecasts

Consider This 13.1: Forecasting Using Excel

            Forecasting for Supply Chains

            Ethical Issues

                        Chapter Summary

                        Key Terms

                        Discussion and Review Questions

                        Solved Problems


                        Case Study 13.1: Forecasting Ticket Demand for the Super Bowl

                        Case Study 13.2: Ethical Forecasting: If You Torture the Numbers Long Enough, They Can Tell You Anything!

                        Video Case

                        Critical Thinking Exercises