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Journal Article 11.1: Wozniak, K. H. (2017). Public opinion about gun control post–Sandy Hook. Criminal Justice Policy Review, 28, 255–278.

Abstract: I use data from a national public opinion poll conducted 4 months after the mass shooting of teachers and students in Sandy Hook Elementary School to analyze the content and predictors of public opinion about gun control and gun control politics. I find that a slim majority of Americans favors a semiautomatic weapon ban and proposals to make gun control laws stricter, and a large majority supports a federal background check law. Consistent with previous research, I also find that both instrumental concerns and cultural beliefs are significantly related to people’s opinions about gun control, but the strongest, most consistent predictors of people’s gun control preferences are their political beliefs and affiliations. I conclude by discussing the implications of these findings for the national gun control debate.

Journal Article 11.2: Lewis, D.C., Wood, F. S., & Jacobsmeier, M. L. (September 2014). Public opinion and judicial behavior in direct democracy systems: Gay rights in the American states. State Politics and Police Quarterly, 14, 367-388.

Abstract: Although the U.S. judiciary is designed to be an independent and counter-majoritarian arbiter of the law, many states feature electoral institutions that may expose judges to public pressure. Scholars have demonstrated that judicial elections provide a clear link between public opinion and judicial decision making that may undermine the ability of courts to act in counter-majoritarian ways to protect minority rights. We extend this line of inquiry by examining whether direct democracy institutions have a similar effect of enhancing the impact of public opinion on judicial behavior and reducing the likelihood of judges voting in favor of minority rights. Empirical results from an analysis of gay rights cases in the American states from 1981 to 2004 provide evidence that direct democracy, in conjunction with electoral retention methods, significantly increases the effect of public opinion on judicial decisions.

Journal Article 11.3: Rothschild, D. & Malhortra, N. (July-September 2014). Are public opinion polls self-fulfilling prophecies?. Research and Politics, 1, 1-10.

Abstract: Psychologists have long observed that people conform to majority opinion, a phenomenon sometimes referred to as the ‘bandwagon effect’. In the political domain people learn about prevailing public opinion via ubiquitous polls, which may produce a bandwagon effect. Newer types of information – published probabilities derived from prediction market contract prices and aggregated polling summaries – may have similar effects. Consequently, polls can become self-fulfilling prophecies whereby majorities, whether in support of candidates or policies, grow in a cascading manner. Despite increased attention to whether the measurement of public opinion can itself affect public opinion, the existing empirical literature is surprisingly limited on the bandwagon effects of polls. To address this gap, we conducted an experiment on a diverse national sample in which we randomly assigned people to receive information about different levels of support for three public policies. We find that public opinion as expressed through polls affects individual-level attitudes, although the size of the effect depends on issue characteristics.

Journal Article 11.4: Baldassare, M. (March 2005). The role of public opinion on the California Governor's recall in 2003: Populism, partisanship, and direct democracy. American Politics Research, 33, 163-186.

Abstract: The article examines the role of public opinion during the California governor’s recall in 2003 compared to partisanship and ideology. In the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) Statewide Surveys, most Californians reported that their state was headed in the wrong direction, whereas relatively few said that they trusted state government, and most said that they disapproved of the way the governor was handling his job. Californians reported that they liked the recall process in concept, and about one half said that they were pleased with its current use and satisfied with the replacement candidates. The author finds that public support for the recall was consistent over time and related to negative political attitudes and positive recall attitudes when controlling for other factors. The implications for the future use and success of recalls and on what political science has to say about the role of populism and partisanship in the direct democracy movement are discussed.